Nick Kawakami

Spring is March-ing along, and while the stats will show another sluggish month in our local real estate industry, the market mood has much more “spring” to it! Let’s take a look at the stats from last month try to interpret this VERY interesting market.

What the stats say

While single-family home prices rose over last month, they were down again versus last year. As mentioned last month, the market in the beginning of 2022 was on fire, so comparing the two years is “apples and oranges.” The most interesting number though was the number of days that homes are sitting for sale before they go into Escrow. That number shot up to 47 days on average last month, which is timing we haven’t seen since the condo market at the beginning of the pandemic. This should be an anomaly more than a trend, as inventory numbers shrunk versus last month. In the condo market, sales were up almost 20% versus last month but are down 33.1% year-over year. Prices are only down 3.4% versus February 2022, dropping slightly more than expected.

Interest rates rise

As the fed continues to raise the federal funds rate, mortgage rates struggle to stay below 7% nationwide. As the inflation numbers slowed during January, there was hope that would ease rate hikes, but not enough has been done to cool market activity. In the real estate industry, this has placed a lot of pressure on homebuyers, some of whom have lost 40% of their buying power versus the rates last year. You can see it reflected in the length of time on the market and plateauing median prices, as financed-backed buyers struggle to either recalibrate their expectations or exit the market entirely.

How interest rates affect Sellers

Buyers are not the only ones making decisions based on the rising interest rates. Home sellers are also adjusting their expectations because of this same pressure on Buyers. Less properties are being listed overall, as Sellers question the efficiency of the market they’d possibly be entering now. Some sellers are also feeling like they’ve “lost money,” comparing their situation to the market we had last year. Whatever their personal reason is, it’s continuing the drop in new listings on the market, tightening the little options that buyers have.

It’s the month of love, but has our real estate year kicked off with the same feeling? With January in the books, let’s take a look at the overall island market to see what the data is showing us and see if there are any trends we can see early in the year!

Stats for stats sake

You can’t deny that seeing falling numbers versus last year is not something that prospective property Sellers want to see. With both the median price of single-family homes and condos falling 7.6% and 2.9% over the same time last year, and the number of closed down about 50% for each as well, the market did feel the slow down most predicted over the holiday season. These numbers are not surprising as rising interest rates hit recent highs as well, combining both a slower Buyer season and tougher sales prospects.

Stats versus last year

The headlines from this latest release of sales statistics highlight the large downturn in number of sales and median price. However, be careful trying to read too much into these as they are compared to a very different January in 2022. Rates were half of what they are today, Buyers were offering extreme incentives in their offers, and competition was way higher. The danger in how we compare these two different selling markets is that we sometimes place value on one over the other. Homes are still selling in today’s market, so don’t think the sky is falling just yet.

Inflation indicates no slowing down next month

The federal reserve is doing its best to slow down the economy and curb inflation. In doing so, mortgage rates have climbed higher and higher compared to this time last year. While there is some signs inflation is slowing, it doesn’t seem to be exactly where the fed wants it to be and they expect some further rate hikes coming soon. If consumer mortgage rates continue to rise over the next few months, we will continue to see fewer sales and possibly further softening of median prices. I still don’t expect to see the type of market retraction that you see in other real estate markets around the country, but it is inevitable that higher rates = higher borrowing costs for buyers = less buyers can afford = downward pressure on median home prices. Exactly what the fed wants to see, but might be tough for prospective Seller’s who think they can still list high like last year.

That’s all I have for this month, see you next month!

Nick

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[Read more…] about 2022 Year-End Real Estate Market Recap & Opinion

Settling in to summer, July stats stay constant

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[Read more…] about July 2022 Real Estate Market Recap & Opinion