Nick Kawakami

2024 had a mixed bag of data signals, and as we look at the year ahead we may see more of the same inconsistency we saw.

Condos set record median price in December but end the year with more listings available and longer listing times

2024 ends with 56% more condos for sale year-to-date (YTD), a result of increasing insurance costs, capital improvements, and deferred maintenance in many buildings that have persisted over time. This substantial inventory increase reflects ongoing economic pressures that property owners face, including rising costs of materials and labor that have influenced their ability to maintain and enhance their properties. Year-to-date (YTD) condo sales decreased by 2.5% from last year and are down an alarming 30% compared to 2022, which highlights the challenges buyers are facing in this fluctuating market. Despite these conditions, the current months of active inventory for condos sit at 5.2%, indicating a BUYER’s market where potential purchasers may have more negotiating power than in previous years. This shift presents unique opportunities for buyers who may find favorable pricing and a wider selection. Overall, the condo market’s dynamics are changing rapidly, and stakeholders must stay informed to navigate these trends effectively.

Single-family homes fared better than condos, better but are not immune to similar insurance issues

Inventory of single-family homes rose 12% year-over-year in 2024, paired with longer marketing times. In spite of this, many homes still garnered multiple offers as land becomes harder to purchase. All in all, median prices rose 4.8% and and total sales rose by 9.1%.

Pricing matters as buyers define the most important factors

A significant portion of the market’s activity in 2024 was driven by single-family homes priced at $999,999 and below, which accounted for about 40% of total sales, reflecting a strong demand from first-time buyers and families looking for affordable options. This segment’s popularity highlights the importance of pricing strategies and the appeal of suburban living, where larger properties and better amenities are often available. Meanwhile, the higher-end market, with homes priced at $1 million and above, saw a remarkable 19.2% increase in sales, suggesting a resurgence in luxury real estate investments, particularly among affluent buyers seeking more spacious and luxurious properties amidst changing lifestyle preferences. Condo sales also saw significant growth in the $500,000 and above range, surpassing sales at lower price points, indicating that many buyers are now prioritizing amenities and location over purely price-driven considerations, thus reshaping the narrative of urban real estate where lifestyle and convenience are becoming major selling points.

Many factors should keep markets consistent again in 2025

The outlook for the year ahead is simply “same, same.” The condo market will continue to struggle with increased inventory, which has been a persistent challenge over the past few years, leading to heightened competition among sellers. This situation is exacerbated by a notable demographic shift, as more buyers are seeking larger living spaces due to changing lifestyle preferences. Meanwhile, the limited supply of homes is expected to keep values up in a competitive market, creating a paradox where condos may become increasingly harder to sell, yet retain their value due to overall market demand. As we approach 2025, it will be vital for investors and homebuyers to closely monitor these trends and adapt their strategies accordingly, ensuring that they can navigate through the complexities of the market effectively.

During today’s Metro Regional Meeting for the Honolulu Board of Realtors, guest speaker Sumner La Croix, Professor Emeritus from the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO), gave us attendees an update an outlook on the current local economy. I’ve distilled the whole presentation down to the major points, so reach out if you want to talk more.

Robust outlook expected nationwide

Overall, Sumner stated that, in spite of how it “feels,” the overall market should be fairly robust and growth is expected to continue at it’s normal 3% pace annually. Depending on what economic policies are actually enacted once President Trump takes office, there could be issues affecting our local economy that we need to monitor.

Mass deportation will affect Hawaii economy directly

Basically, deportation of workers in places like California, Nevada, and Arizona will create a vacuum of job migration to the mainland. Local workers in industries like tourism and construction will be drawn to the mainland when the lack of workforce creates a higher demand there.

Tax cuts will put stress on medium and long-term interest rates

President Trump’s proposed tax cuts will raise output, leading to a bigger deficit, and put stress on interest rates. Tax cuts would also need to be paired with spending cuts, putting a damper on economic growth, and possibly leading to even higher interest rates.

Tariffs could put further strain on international tourism

Outside of the direct increase that tariffs would have on nationwide inflation, it would raise the value of the dollar internationally. If that happens, the international tourist may seek other cheaper destinations instead of Hawai‘i, including real estate purchases.

Economic policies will not lower interest rates as far as expected

With inflation expected to continue to rise under President Trump’s economic policies, we will also see mortgage interest rates settle around 6% nationwide. UHERO expects 10-year treasury yields to grow as well, alongside a falling federal funds rate.

Statewide, economic weakness is Maui

Overall, visitors are about 80% back since the wildfire on Maui. While all other islands have seen growth since then, Maui continues to drag the state’s overall economy down as it still recovers.

State population also expected to fall in near future

A population decline is expected, which leads to a shrinking labor force and less homebuyers.

Japanese tourism still down

Tourism from Japan is still about 40% of what it was pre-COVID, and is expected to continue struggling amid rising dollar strength (weakening Yen) and more affordable destinations.

Construction expected to offset tourism downswing

Thanks to several large government construction projects in the works, UHERO expects the local economy to be stable amid the tourism slowdown. The projects are only scheduled through 2028, so forecasts after that are weaker.

Regulatory costs are third highest in the nation

According to a recent UHERO study, Hawaii ranks third in the nation among highest regulatory costs in new condo construction. UHERO estimates that roughly $400,000 is added on to the cost of constructing a condo due to delays from permitting and archaeological examinations.

Locked-in mortgages will strain resales

Since January 2022, roughly 30% of all mortgage loans on the island have less than a 3% rate. It was closer to 5% pre-COVID. With rates above 6% now, it will be harder for homeowners to make a flip into a new property at the higher rate, so more owners are expected to hang on to their current mortgage longer than traditionally.

Overall outlook not as strong locally

Maui rebuilding and government construction projects will grow Hawaii GDP in the short term. However, if foreign tourists continue to struggle amid a strengthening dollar, then Hawaii will struggle to maintain good economic standing after those construction dollars have run out. Pairing that with expected rising inflation under President Trump’s economic policies and the rising costs of insurance locally, will put a strain on our economy in the long-term.

This outlook is in line with what we’ve been seeing within the real estate market. We had hoped that interest rates would fall a little further than what UHERO is outlaying, but a settling rate is better than a rising rate, especially as more Sellers will sit on the fence with their sub-3% interest rate locked in.

If you would like more information about any of these points, feel free to reach out and let me know!

With the holiday season gearing up, I’m happy to announce that my family and I will be hosting our 14th annual toy drive and kick-off concert again this year! The festivities start with a concert featuring my Dad & Brother at the Slack Key Lounge at Hawaiian Brians, and continue with a month-long toy drive to benefit the Laulima Giving Program.

We started this toy drive with the intent to help local families and, to date, we’ve donated thousands of new toys and tens of thousands of dollars. It’s been a huge privilege and humbling experience to see so many of our friends and family support this cause with us each year!

Kick-Off Concert Details

To start the toy drive and kick-off the Christmas season, MānoaDNA will be performing live and tickets will be available soon! Here are the details for the concert, as of today (11/4/2024):

• Date: Saturday, November 30th, 2024
• Location: Slack-Key Lounge at Hawaiian Brians (1680 Kapiolani Blvd, 2nd Floor)
• Time: TBD, but will be an evening concert
• Tickets: Click here to buy tickets ($10/each)
• Virtual Viewing: Link to be provided before the concert

We will also be collecting toys at the concert, so please bring new, unused, and unwrapped donations with you!

More Ways to Donate Toys!

The concert is not the only way we are collecting toys! If you can’t make it to the concert, you can still help Hawai‘i families by donating new and unwrapped toy donations to my office at Marcus Realty through December 23rd. Please drop off during business hours (8:30 AM-5:30 PM Monday-Friday), and do not leave any donations outside if the office is closed. The Laulima Giving Project will come to pick up all the donations and make sure they get into the right hands!

If you are going to be dropping off a toy to my office this way, please call/text me to let me know! I am not personally there during all business hours, but our staff is ready to help if I am not.

Thank You!

On behalf of my family, we’re super grateful that you’re taking the time to help this great cause! We’ve been really fortunate to have great Christmases growing up, so we really work hard to give that to other families as well! Your donations go directly to the Laulima Giving Project and make a HUGE difference during the holidays! Thank you for being a part of it, and happy holidays!

Here are my opinions on the O‘ahu real estate market after October and finishing up the third quarter of 2023

They say time flies when you’re having fun, so that must mean I’m having tons of fun this year! I can’t believe it’s already November and we’re on our way to Thanksgiving & Christmas. Whether you’re on-island or away, I wish you nothing but a safe and happy start to the holiday season and look forward to another great year in 2024! Here’s my thoughts on the market for September 2023 and the third quarter overall.

Q3 2023 Summary & Opinion

Overall in the third quarter of 2023, we saw some interesting trends emerge as the year-over-year changes shrunk compared to the same periods in 2022. In the beginning of 2022, we were still experiencing crazy-low interest rates while home prices continued their pandemic pace. About that same time, as inflation became rampant, the fed started raising their interest rate in hopes of cooling spending in the economy. Over the past 12 months, it seems we’re finally starting to see some of that as mortgage rates hover above 7%.

From a statistical standpoint, comparing the the start of 2022 to the start of 2023 was sensational as the number of home sales dropped significantly under the different market conditions. Comparing the white-hot start of 2022 with the higher interest rates starting 2023, it was easy to see why those numbers were so different between each year. As the interest rate hikes started in mid-2022 though, we saw a quieter market for the second-half of 2022, so the comparisons to a similar second-half of 2023 were more moderate. The third quarter did see some of those year-over-year gaps shrink but not in median price. Instead, that important stat has seemed to hover in-place as Sellers hold firm amid low inventory.

As we move into the end of 2023, I would expect this to remain the same as there is no sign of inventory numbers picking up. We may see a slight drop in the median price of condos due to several external factors, but overall, I’d still expect to see similar stats moving forward.

October 2023 Stats & Opinion

On a smaller level, October showed some promising numbers over 2022 that support some of things mentioned above. First, the median price for single-family homes was up 4.8% over the same month last year, but has bounced around the same price throughout the year. Home prices seem to have plateaued, especially versus the gains we saw during the pandemic, and that’s due to both a tighter inventory for Seller’s and higher interest rates for Buyer’s. On the condo side, it dropped 1.0%, not much of a change and both still near their all-time highs.

The most interesting stat for October 2023 is the year-over-year changes in closed sales on both sides. Versus the same month last year, the number of closed single-family homes is only down 4.1% and condos is down 8.3%. This is a big difference from the start of the year, where we were seeing 40% differences and proves the market changes that were happening overall in Q3. They are still super tight numbers with only 213 sold homes and 399 condos in October, but overall sentiment seems to be calming as both sides of our industry get used to these tighter markets.

It’s beginning to look a lot like the holidays

With November in full swing and the holidays ramping up, I can’t help but assume that we will finish out the year with the same moderate changes we’ve seen all year. Prices will hover around $1.1M and $500K, closed sales will be lower than 2022, and interest rates will hover as consumer holiday spending ramps up. It will be interesting to see how the economy reacts to prices during the spending season, and hopefully it will lead to more opportunities for real estate equity in 2024!

Whatever the case, I will be watching it all! I hope you have a good holiday season, and let me know if you ever need anything from me!

-Nick

Don’t wait for the hurricane alerts! Follow these precautions now to ensure the safety of your family and home!

While some natural disasters are infrequent (like tornadoes), Hawaii is geographically positioned to be high-risk for Pacific hurricanes. From June 1st to November 30th, our risk becomes even greater as we enter “hurricane season.” NOAA is predicting a near- or above-normal hurrican season,so it’s important to make sure you are prepared if a storm should hit. Below are some guidelines and resources you can use to get yourself ready this year!

[Read more…] about Hurricane season is here!

May shows signs of “summer heat” as the market continues to suffer from inventory and interest rate concerns. Let’s take a look at the market statistics for May and see what conclusions we can draw!

[Read more…] about Monthly Real Estate Market Report – May 2023